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[stem-dev] Global Pervasive Computational Epidemiology Seminar Series
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Subject: Global Pervasive Computational Epidemiology Seminar Series:
Simon Levin and Dylan Morris (Princeton)
When: Thursday, June 11, 2020 11:30 AM-12:30 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern
Time (US & Canada).
Where: https://virginia.zoom.us/j/95415694738
...new
Global Pervasive Computational Epidemiology Seminar Series on topics relating
to the Expeditions project. Seminars will be held the 2nd and
4th Thursday of each month, 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM Eastern
time. The first 30 minutes will be a presentation from our speaker(s),
followed by time reserved afterwards for questions and discussion. Please
forward this invitation to any who may be interested to attend.
Zoom
link for seminar: https://virginia.zoom.us/j/95415694738
Our
first speakers on June 11 are Simon Levin and Dylan Morris from Princeton.
Please see the attached flyer and the abstract for their talk below:
Optimal, near-optimal,
and robust epidemic control
Dylan
H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin
The
COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for control measures that reduce
the epidemic peak ("flattening the curve"). Here we derive the
optimal time-limited intervention for reducing peak epidemic prevalence
in the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We show that
alternative, more practical interventions can perform nearly as well as
the provably optimal strategy. However, none of these strategies are robust
to implementation errors: mistiming the start of the intervention by even
a single week can be enormously costly, for realistic epidemic parameters.
Sustained control measures, though less efficient than optimal and near-optimal
time-limited interventions, can be used in combination with time-limited
strategies to mitigate the catastrophic risks of mistiming.
Upcoming
seminar speakers will be announced as they are scheduled. We hope to see
everyone at our first seminar on Thursday June 11!