Re: [ide-dev] Eclipse IDE popularity: Snyk report vs download stats

[Mickael Istria <mistria@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi Max.

About JBoss Tools, I think stats are reliable and JBoss Tools is
dropping for multiple causes that are specific to JBoss Tools (and we
can discuss them on JBoss Tools specific channels). I don't think we
can deduce anything about IDE state from it.

Cheerd

On 2/6/20, Max Andersen <manderse@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I fully agree snyk report about massive drop is not true for the wide
> industry but using download numbers ain't going to give a true picture
> either.
>
> But looking at jboss Tools usage stats there are a decline the last year
> for the first time in almost 10 years so things are changing.
>
> Eclipse doesn't have similar usage tracking but there are P2 update http
> requests made.
>
> So Look at P2 update stats hit instead of downloads. That will be a much
> better unbiased source.
>
> /Max
>
> On Thu, 6 Feb 2020 at 09:34, Ed Merks <ed.merks@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>> Ed,
>>
>> Note that the numbers have been unreliably low for an unknown period of
>> time since before Denis fixed the problem with rolling up the daily stats
>> (2019-01-09) into cumulative stats:
>>
>>   https://bugs.eclipse.org/bugs/show_bug.cgi?id=558366
>>
>> In general, all statistic must be taken with a grain of salt.  After all,
>> the expression "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is not without basis.
>>
>> I assume Mickael was referring to this report:
>>
>>
>> https://snyk.io/blog/intellij-idea-dominates-the-ide-market-with-62-adoption-among-jvm-developers/
>>
>> Goodness knows which 2000 responses were measured by this survey nor how
>> representative that is of the entire Java ecosystem.  I'm doubtful it's
>> in
>> any way representative of the broader reality.  For example, based on
>> this
>> report, apparently close to 50% of the Java developers pay for and use
>> Intellij IDEA.  As such, given the huge Java market in which apparently
>> 50%
>> of those developers are paying some $ for Intellij, they must be making a
>> massive fortune from the Java ecosystem.  How likely is that in reality?
>> It would certainly help them invest far more heavily than does Eclipse's
>> freetarded ecosystem.
>>
>> In the end, I don't see much value is looking at zipped update sites.
>> Who
>> actually does that?
>>
>> Regards,
>> Ed
>> On 06.02.2020 09:57, Ed Willink wrote:
>>
>> Hi Mickael
>>
>> I'm not at all sure how well the download stats relate to reality...
>>
>> I was looking at the download stats a couple of days ago to try to
>> determine how dead MoDisco is...
>>
>> so on https://dev.eclipse.org/committers/committertools/stats.php, I
>> entered download.eclipse.org, modisco-Update, from 2019-01-01 to
>> 2020-10-10, daily download stats per file. Partial displays below.
>>
>> It shows small values, almost like a background level, but why did 10/26
>> of the 1.5.0.zip downloads occur on Xmas day?
>>
>> Why is 1.5.0M3.zip still being downloaded - albeit trivial number of
>> times.
>>
>> Looking at a more active project ATL-Update:
>>
>> why only 7 download in 35 days of 2020 compared to 5711 in 2019?
>>
>>
>> Changing to total per file, we see the top 20 entries with between 103
>> and
>> 193 downloads. OK a very even spread ?? good, but most of the entries are
>> milestone builds. Why are so many 'users' sticking with an even spread of
>> milestone builds? Surely this is an indication that the 'users' are
>> 'spiders' or 'mirror polling' rather than true users.
>>
>> Changing to EMF-Update we see results that might be big enough to escape
>> the 'background' noise. The top 5 entries are the most recent 5 releases
>> 563 to 185 downloads. Plausible, but the sixth entry is 2.6.zip; a 10
>> year
>> old release; why is this still so ridiculously popular? It doesn't
>> correlate with the last Eclipse 3.x release; It is a download from the
>> latest organisation of EMF downloads that did not exist until 8 years
>> after
>> the release was superseded; more traditional downloads were
>> emf-xsd-update.
>>
>> ----
>>
>> My examples above are all on smaller numbers and so the associated issues
>> may be swamped by the larger numbers for the SDK, but I think there are
>> sufficient uncertainties to have doubt as to whether the numbers tell us
>> what we think they do about 'users' rather than 'bots'.
>>
>>     Regards
>>
>>         Ed Willink
>> On 06/02/2020 08:03, Mickael Istria wrote:
>>
>> 2. The Eclipse download stats are not reliable...
>>
>>
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>
> --
> /max
> https://about.me/maxandersen
>


-- 
Mickael Istria
Eclipse IDE <https://www.eclipse.org/downloads/eclipse-packages/>
developer, for Red Hat Developers <https://developers.redhat.com/>