|Re: [ide-dev] Eclipse IDE popularity: Snyk report vs download stats|
Note that the numbers have been unreliably low for an unknown period of time since before Denis fixed the problem with rolling up the daily stats (2019-01-09) into cumulative stats:
In general, all statistic must be taken with a grain of salt. After all, the _expression_ "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is not without basis.
I assume Mickael was referring to this report:
Goodness knows which 2000 responses were measured by this survey
nor how representative that is of the entire Java ecosystem. I'm
doubtful it's in any way representative of the broader reality.
For example, based on this report, apparently close to 50% of the
Java developers pay for and use Intellij IDEA. As such, given the
huge Java market in which apparently 50% of those developers are
paying some $ for Intellij, they must be making a massive fortune
from the Java ecosystem. How likely is that in reality? It would
certainly help them invest far more heavily than does Eclipse's
In the end, I don't see much value is looking at zipped update
sites. Who actually does that?
I'm not at all sure how well the download stats relate to reality...
I was looking at the download stats a couple of days ago to try to determine how dead MoDisco is...
so on https://dev.eclipse.org/committers/committertools/stats.php, I entered download.eclipse.org, modisco-Update, from 2019-01-01 to 2020-10-10, daily download stats per file. Partial displays below.
It shows small values, almost like a background level, but why did 10/26 of the 1.5.0.zip downloads occur on Xmas day?
Why is 1.5.0M3.zip still being downloaded - albeit trivial number of times.
Looking at a more active project ATL-Update:
why only 7 download in 35 days of 2020 compared to 5711 in 2019?
Changing to total per file, we see the top 20 entries with between 103 and 193 downloads. OK a very even spread ?? good, but most of the entries are milestone builds. Why are so many 'users' sticking with an even spread of milestone builds? Surely this is an indication that the 'users' are 'spiders' or 'mirror polling' rather than true users.
Changing to EMF-Update we see results that might be big enough to escape the 'background' noise. The top 5 entries are the most recent 5 releases 563 to 185 downloads. Plausible, but the sixth entry is 2.6.zip; a 10 year old release; why is this still so ridiculously popular? It doesn't correlate with the last Eclipse 3.x release; It is a download from the latest organisation of EMF downloads that did not exist until 8 years after the release was superseded; more traditional downloads were emf-xsd-update.
My examples above are all on smaller numbers and so the associated issues may be swamped by the larger numbers for the SDK, but I think there are sufficient uncertainties to have doubt as to whether the numbers tell us what we think they do about 'users' rather than 'bots'.
On 06/02/2020 08:03, Mickael Istria wrote:
2. The Eclipse download stats are not reliable...
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