It's less a shift to a web IDE vs. a shift to distributed developer services.
There are three triggers:
1. Open source
2. Agile development
3. Embedded IOT systems
The story I gave in the speech wasn't a line of convenience. It was a true story.
My challenges and frustrations are universally felt. Vagrant is a great technology but is an 80% solution, and there are just as many companies that are frustrated by it, as they are satisfied with it.
People will not go in search of a Web IDE. I believe that in 100 years there will be 1000 IDEs and developers will have their biases.
But people will accept (and be thankful for) a Web IDE in circumstances where they didn't want to bother with tooling setup.
This starts by getting open source projects to badge their repositories with one-click setup. Generally, project committers would rather spend their time writing pull requests vs. helping new contributors get set up to make a contribution. The badging for contributors then makes the contribution workflow clearer and demonstrates that there are pockets of acceptance in the world for using such services. We have about 20 open source projects that will be putting up badges & Codenvy will give those projects free, unlimited usage for their team members or contributors.
The second step is agile development in the enterprise. Agile development is about getting feedback earlier in the cycle. The tool configuration tax is so high that many members of the agile team: users, PMs, QA cannot necessarily contribute to the code easily. Making a web IDE with one click setup lets the entire delivery stakeholder group have a way to contribute to code before it is merged. The companies that we get to work with are usually driven by management, devops, or R&D VPs. So this sort of productivity improvement is a management initiative. We almost always go into an enterprise and do a dual setup of Eclipse + Codenvy, so for developers that want to continue using their own desktop configuration they can continue to do so.
The third step is embedded IDEs. Devices that have their own IDE for projects as they boot up. Plug the device in, get the IP address, and start building an application. It completely changes the approachability of IOT for children and those that have never programmed before.