|Re: Novel Corona VIrus (nCoV) available [message #1826194 is a reply to message #1820911]
|Tue, 21 April 2020 00:28
| Gunther Schadow
Registered: July 2009
Hi, I am an working with a group of other docs, pharmacologists, and biologists on the CoViD19 crisis. I am here to see if I can myself for the first time creating a CoViD model to explore an eradication program with the antivirals we have so far. They are barely studied in clinical trials but we don't have all year to follow a sequential process. I am looking for someone already familiar with STEM and enough epidemiology to help us put a rough feasibility scenario together with the following interventions:
1. an anti-viral which will reduce the time of infectiousness from 2 (or more) weeks to just 1 week (reduced in half)
2. a pre-emptive/prophylactic treatment of still asymptomatic cases, where then, say, half of them would not become manifest and those that do, half of them would be only half as infectious for only half the time.
3. a prophylactic treatment of contacts, where we do a 75% success rate of contract tracing, and apply that pre-emptive treatment 2. above.
4. a possible addition of 2nd degree contacts with 50% tracing success, applying the same treatment 2.
We can assume that those who have been pre-emptively treated (before becoming symptomatic) would develop the partial immunity that an infected person gets. Perhaps we would say that the prophylactic prevented subject would return to the Susceptible group once their treatment has waned.
We have to consider a certain chance of re-infection and possibly increased time of spreading for some of the infected pepole.
With the model above, can we:
A: eradicate the epidemic (in a fairly small closed system for now, of 4 - 10 million people)?
B: eradicate the epidemic even if we stop the social distancing, i.e., we will do everything as before except (1) more hand washing, (2) more face masks, (3) some better hygienization of shared spaces, e.g., antisepsis of public mass transportation and airplanes.?
Is there a chance?
Or what would the efficacy of the treatment have to be in order to make an eradication attempt feasible?
I am trying to mobilize contacts I have in 2 small countries that could serve as proof of concepts, that is Paraguay and Panama. Both having less than 10 million inhabitants and especially Paraguay still very few cases, and relatively closed borders (representing a fairly closed system right now).
If we have a plan, we have some start-funds for bootstrapping, but we would do a fund-raising campaign and a tactical approach to generate rapid action and really push this plan into visibility. We have a lot of resources waiting for this crucial initial modeling step to be completed. The key right now is to show a rough and good enough feasibility estimate hopefully by the end of this week.
So we are urgently looking for someone who will help us with this important mission. I am leaving this message without details on what exactly our anti-viral interventions are nor a justification why an eradication program is necessary as I don't really want to have a premature discussion here about the feasibility. I hope trust that to the right person with the right mindset the importance of this will be obvious and the possibility to have a real impact might be exciting. I can tell you that I have been in the medical research field for over 30 years and have never experienced a call to volunteer my time and resources as important as this one.
-Gunther Schadow, MD, PhD
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