[stem-ebola] Modeling healt care worker infection with Ebola, and protec

[William H Tetzlaff <tetzlaff@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Colleagues,
I remain concerned that decision makers
are aware of the hundred fold greater probability for infection of hospital
workers, and how their small number threatens the whole system. If anyone
can confirm that decision makers understand this, I will feel better.  If
not, and anyone knows better how to get the information out, I would be
glad to help. 

On the modeling front, the November 21 issue of Science has an article
on modeling, where the model distinguishes between medical workers, and
also transmissions in Hospitals. They publish some data they use for the
model, and show it tracking real data.  I think it important that
the STEM model catch up on this. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6212/991.full

An article in the November 28 issue
of Science considers the various interventions being done in Liberia, and
speculates about whether the bending of the exponential curve is real,
and what has caused it.  The danger to health workers was so obvious
to the workers, that the doctors, nurses and other staff stopped coming
to the clinics and the Liberian health care system collapsed, with people
dying at home of non-ebola diseases.  What I particularly note is
that they mention that they are beginning to screen patients at the door
of normal clinics for ebola symptoms,  When people with symptoms are
found, they are isolated in a room, until a blood test can be done, and
then the are directed appropriately. This is what I suggested in the short
document I shared. Perhaps this is a good idea that is spreading on it's
own. If anyone better suited to pursuing this, than I,  is interested,
I will help.  http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/11/new-phase-ebola-war


Bill
_________________
William Tetzlaff, Ph.D., Emeritus Distinguished Engineer
Past President, IBM Academy of Technology
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